Backtesting

How the markets are measured, and what the numbers turned out to mean.

Crypto TradingTechnical AnalysisBacktestingAutomated TradingTrading Strategy

What is profit factor in trading, and what it cannot tell you

Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. Above one you made money. It is quoted everywhere and misread almost as often - here is what it measures, what it hides, and the number to read beside it.

3 min readBacktesting

How to measure a trading strategy's performance - the five numbers and the one that decides

Win rate, average R, profit factor, drawdown and trade count each answer one question and dodge another. The lower bound answers the question that matters - is this real - and it is the one most tools leave out.

3 min readBacktesting

How to backtest a crypto trading strategy (and the six ways it goes wrong)

A backtest is a replay of fixed rules over past prices. Done right it tells you whether an edge exists. Done the usual way it tells you what you wanted to hear. The difference is six decisions.

4 min readBacktesting

Why most backtests lie, and the one number that does not

A strategy that shows +1.13R per trade over four trades is not a strategy, it is a coin that landed well. Here is the number we plan on instead, and why the engine refuses to run without it.

4 min readBacktesting